Backtesting

Calibration is the edge — the strategy replay below is hypothetical, not a performance claim
Why the VNX ensemble — selective by design
What this replay is — and isn't
VNX's edge is calibration — being right about which markets to trust — shown above and in full on the Calibration Dashboard and Reality Check.

The hypothetical replay below tests a differentquestion: what if you mechanically bet the ensemble's divergence from the market price? VNX does notclaim a price-betting edge — on price, the ensemble's probabilities are about as accurate as the market's, so a naive divergence-betting strategy is expected to lose. The replay is shown for transparency into that, not as a performance claim. Use the calibration record to decide which prices to trust, then size your own conviction.
The strategy replay is a transparency tool, not a performance claim. It mechanically bets the ensemble's divergence from the market price — a strategy VNX does notrecommend and that is expected to lose, because on price the ensemble is about as accurate as the market. VNX's edge is calibration — see the Calibration Dashboard. Open the hypothetical replay only if you want to inspect that disavowed strategy for yourself.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. CFTC RULE 4.41(b). Past results do not predict future outcomes. Calculator output — not financial advice. Tech Takes LLC — VNX Terminal.